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The Reform Party has enjoyed a notable edge in public surveys for many months, yet the party deals with several weaknesses. A primary concern is that immigration policy seems to be its single effective campaign point, whereas on almost every topics, its policy offer is flimsy and its trustworthiness is low. Nowhere is this more evident than in economic matters, where the group has been forced to concede that the £90bn tax cuts it previously supported in its manifesto last year are being discarded because they are unachievable.

Farage's Economic Strategy

Today, Nigel Farage is trying to resolve this problem with a address in which he will, as he describes it, “outline our economic plan for a prospective Reform administration.” According to advance reports, Farage will pledge the group to wholesale deregulation.

Farage will further declare that, with Reform in power, spending cuts would occur before tax cuts.

Reform will get public spending under control, so that the country's debt expenses decrease. Then, and only then will I cut taxes to boost the economy. We need to ensure the economy expands.

This represents a significant shift from what Farage was proposing last year.

Political Reactions

In the past when Labour and the Conservatives mostly disregarded Farage speeches, but yesterday evening they each released extensive advance rebuttals that contained more information than the Reform party preview. Labour asserted that Farage plans to reintroduce fiscal austerity. A Labour spokesperson stated:

Nigel Farage claims he is offering something new – but for all his talk, his plan would take us back to austerity.

Our observations show from the councils Reform run that they’ve failed to deliver the savings they already promised and are reducing public services and raising taxes as a result. They’ve said themselves that such administrations are a demonstration for what a Reform administration would do at the national level – it is clear that this is additional hollow commitments and no real plan.

The Conservative Party published a detailed report attacking Reform’s economic policy. In a statement, Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said Reform's commitments “disintegrate after five minutes” and that its economic policies are “progressive.”

Assessment of Attacks

Comparing the opposition approaches, the austerity argument from Labour is more plausible, especially since of Farage's intended statements about spending cuts coming before tax cuts. The Tory party is seeking to portray Reform as progressive due to the fact that selected welfare policies avoid the same level of reductions as those supported by the Tory party and because the last Reform manifesto contained a proposal for state-owned services to be operated under a system involving half public control, with the remaining 50% being owned by UK pension funds. But this is not an idea that Reform has been supporting in recent times; this part of the Tory analysis does not take into account the shadow chancellor's observation about Reform manifesto promises having brief credibility.

Following the address, political rivals will get the chance to revise their attack lines against the Reform Party.

Current Events Timeline

There is various other developments planned for the day. Below is the schedule:

• 10.30am: Chester's judicial body starts hearing a voting dispute challenging the result of the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, which was won by Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin by a margin of six votes.
• 11am: Nigel Farage, the head of Reform UK, presents a talk on economic policy.
• 11.30am: Number 10 holds a lobby briefing.
• 1.30pm: Chris Wormald, the senior official, and Olly Robbins, permanent secretary at the Foreign Office, give evidence the Commons foreign affairs committee about the functions of the Foreign Ministry. The hearing is expected to include inquiries regarding the screening process for Peter Mandelson before he was appointed ambassador to the United States.
• 2.30pm: John Healey, the defence secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
• After 3.30pm: Shabana Mahmood MP, the domestic affairs head, provides an update to MPs about the Huntingdon railway incident.