Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
