Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
